Europe to absorb 97% of Yamal LNG by early 2026, as global gas price surge drives reliance on Russia
JAKARTA – Europe has increased its purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia’s Yamal project ahead of plans to ban energy imports from Moscow. The region’s dependence has instead reached a new record at the start of 2026.
According to maritime-executive, an analysis by the organisation Urgewald based on Kpler data shows that the European Union absorbed almost all Yamal LNG exports in the first quarter of 2026. Of the 71 cargoes shipped globally, 69 cargoes or around 97 per cent entered the European market, equivalent to 5.07 million tonnes.
China, by contrast, received only two cargoes in January and none in February or March. For these purchases, the European Union paid Russia around US$3.33 billion. The surge in global gas prices, driven by the Middle East crisis and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, also increased the value of the transactions.
European benchmark gas prices (TTF) rose by 51 per cent in March compared with January and February. The previous average price was around US$41 per MWh, rising to US$61 per MWh. Over the past four years, Europe has spent more than US$230 billion on Russian oil and gas imports. This situation complicates the EU’s target of ending all energy dependence on Russia.
Urgewald argues that Europe is not only the main buyer but also the logistical backbone of the Yamal LNG project. Several contracts are still valid until 2040.
The Yamal project relies on a limited fleet of Arc7 ice‑class tankers capable of operating year‑round. Without support from European ports, the distribution of LNG from the Arctic would be severely hindered.
Russia’s efforts to shift its market to Asia continue to face obstacles. Fleet limitations mean expansion will take many years. The Russian gas producer Novatek has only recently established a shipbuilding subsidiary to strengthen transport capacity, but the impact will not be felt in the near future. (DH/LM)
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